I'd say that's right. One can refute one's sincerity by overdoing something, as is the case in Hamlet. Gertrude, however, doesn't see herself in it, IIRC.
I always have taken it to mean that the person who is protesting is protesting so much, that maybe they are guilty of what they are blaming the other person of. For example, Donald accuses everyone of "fake news," knowing that he is the liar. Or some such...
I agree with Bob. Kalleh, your interpretation is modern, informed by psychology: you recognize the character may be "sincere" in a technical sense, but her words display subconscious insincerity.
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Raises the question of whether it is logically possible to be sincere about something you don’t actually believe. You can certainly appear sincere but that’s not the same thing at all.
"No man but a blockhead ever wrote except for money." Samuel Johnson.
Bob, give me an example. I can be sincere about other religions (other than Judaism), but I don't believe in them. I am trying to understand your perspective.