Our news reports said that there was a 100% chance of thunderstorms. Really? I wondered how they possibly could be that accurate. After all, there is no chance for failure.

By the way, there were no thunderstorms that day.

There are 20 weathermen -
opps, meteorologists - sitting in a room. They get up, one at a time, and say what they think the weather will do. If 3 get up and say they think it's going to rain and the other 17 say it's going to be fair and sunny, then that's a 15% chance of rain. If all of them say there will be thunderstorms, them there's a 100% chance of thunderstorms. Whether they're right or not is immaterial. I thought you knew that.

I've told this stoiry before.

The first time I was in Miami there was aweather forecast on the morning TV that said (something like) "There is a sixty five percent of rain at three fifteen this afternoon."

It manages the trick of being both incredibly specific and absolutely meaningless. After all if it doesn't rain, or rains at a different time were they right or wrong?

For the record it was a beautiful sunny day with a terrible fifteen minute thunderstorm that started at about 3:10.

Perhaps they had looked out of the window and had seen a thunderstorm going on outside the studio.

Forecasters over here don't give percentages; instead that they'll say that something is 'likely', 'possible', 'probable', and so on.

Many in the UK will remember one particular time when a forecaster was definite and got it badly wrong. In the 1980s Michael Fish said something like "Many people have heard that a hurricane is on its way from France overnight. Don't worry, it won't be".

Of course, the south of England woke up to find a trail of destruction left by hurricane-force winds. To be fair, it wasn't technically a hurricane apparently, but most people aren't concerned with technicalities. Michael Fish is still remembered for his gaffe when his peers are well-nigh forgotten, and clips are regularly played on TV on bloopers shows and the like.

I understand Fish is not too happy about the constant reminders of his notoriety. He's also laughed at now because of the dreadful tie and haircut he was sporting at the time.

quote:

For the record it was a beautiful sunny day with a terrible fifteen minute thunderstorm that started at about 3:10.

My experience with Florida is that rain about that time, for a short period, happens just about every day, on schedule. We experienced that in St. Augustine, only it was about 4:00 every day.